Blue Origin Launch Calamity Could Spell Problems for Amazon and AST
A Blue Origin hotfire test of its New Glenn rocket last week that ended in a massive explosion in Cape Canaveral, Florida, could substantially delay the satellite deployment efforts of Amazon Leo and AST SpaceMobile, space experts said.
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Quilty Space's Caleb Henry told us in an email that AST, Amazon Leo and the U.S. government are seemingly most acutely affected. Blue Origin was apparently going to shift into an accelerated launch pace in the second half of the year, with multiple launches, he said. "That would have served as a pressure release valve for an industry that’s been stuck with a shortage of launch supply since 2022," Henry said. "Now that pressure stays."
Returning a rocket to service can take three to six months, while significant damage could leave a launchpad out of service for a year or more, Henry noted. The New Glenn incident's impact on competition with SpaceX will depend on how long the Blue Origin rocket is out of commission and how severe the damage is to its only functional launchpad, he said. While SpaceX will benefit from more launch customers, the incident also tells Arianespace, ULA and Rocket Lab that "the sooner they can ramp launches of their heaviest vehicles, the better."
William Blair's Louie DiPalma wrote investors Friday that the mishap will delay AST's full deployment since it was depending on New Glenn to reach its target of 45 satellites in orbit by year-end. The inability to use New Glenn at least in the near future could affect customer trials planned for later this year, he said. "If AST's service proves exceptional, carriers and investors will likely forgive AST for the delays."
Space consultant Tim Farrar wrote on social media that the start of AST commercial service could be pushed into 2028. In an email to us, he said that beyond the next two AST launches, which were already scheduled to be on SpaceX, it was going to rely mostly on New Glenn. "That's off the table." AST could potentially get two additional SpaceX launches this year, he said, adding that beyond SpaceX and Blue Origin, AST's other option is Vulcan, with which it has a backup position if another customer cancels.
Tim Belfall, director at England's WestEnd WiFi, a Starlink integrator, wrote on social media that the explosion potentially creates "a devastating delay to both Amazon Leo and AST SpaceMobile constellations." Leo has a range of launch providers it's working with, but Blue Origin "would have provided the frequency and mass to orbit Amazon Leo needs over the next 24 months, assuming the FCC grant[s] a license extension."
AST said in an emailed statement that its near-term launches "are unaffected; none of the missions planned for the next few months are scheduled with Blue Origin." Its satellites "are designed to be launcher-agnostic, and we have agreements in place with multiple launch providers, giving us flexibility across our launch program." Blue Origin and Amazon Leo didn't comment.