Many Carriers Still Sticking With Copper Lines: S&P Expert

The survey also found that many providers, especially those in Europe and Australia, are still relying on copper lines for big parts of their networks, including DSL technologies, said Keith, a principal analyst for broadband infrastructure at S&P Global Market Intelligence. Companies such as Deutsche Telekom are still deploying DSL-based technology like SuperVector “and still buying it.” Europe accounted for 85% of DSL revenue in Q4 of 2025, he noted. But the small percentage of DSL purchases compared with fiber will “absolutely decline,” he predicted. “It’s already chicken feed at this point for a lot of operators.”

S&P also asked carriers how long they planned to maintain DSL technology in their networks, Keith said. While about a quarter said less than a year, more than 20% said less than three years, and about 10% as long as 10 years. The most common deployments using DSL are to apartments and other multi-dwelling units, where providers hope to continue to use in-building copper “as long as it’s competitive with whatever else is in the market,” he added.

However, Keith argued that 5G and eventually 6G “will drive fiber builds globally,” whether it’s for backhaul or fronthaul. U.S. carriers are shifting fiber deployment to neighborhoods they didn’t already serve, he said. “AT&T has been doing this for years,” converting copper lines to “full fiber deployments.” S&P also found that competition is the “No. 1 driver” for fiber-to-the-home deployments.

For cable operators, gigabit passive optical network (GPON) deployments are reaching their “apex,” making it “the single most shipped technology globally,” Keith said. Still, 50G PON, the next standards-based evolution in PON technology, isn't expected “to be mass marketed until at the very earliest 2030” and will be deployed first in China and other parts of Asia.

S&P also forecast that the U.S. will close “the digital divide gap” by 2036 with the help of BEAD funding, Keith said.

Bolton said he disagreed with S&P's findings that many cable operators so far aren’t upgrading to fiber. Cable companies see 66% more upstream capacity used when they offer fiber versus cable to the same subscriber, he said. Cablers are “moving as fast as they can to try to get more upstream capacity,” he argued. "From what I’m seeing, the only time they don’t upgrade to fiber is when they don’t have competition."

Bolton said he also views fixed-wireless access as a “short-lived little bubble” that will eventually be replaced by fiber as it becomes “more pervasive” and AI places more demands on networks. He added that he also sees satellite broadband as a “fill-in technology.”

“There’s no wireless technology that will ever be superior to a wireline solution,” Keith responded. The main reason consumers are moving to fixed wireless is price, he said. “I’m paying a lot of money for Verizon FiOS each month,” so when T-Mobile offers fixed broadband for less than half the price, “a lot of consumers are going to at least give it a shot.”

Bolton noted on the webinar that his group is preparing reply comments, due Monday, as the FCC readies its biannual report on the state of competition in the communications marketplace. It also filed initial comments (see 2605220026). The report is “important because it shapes how policymakers view competition across the communications marketplace and often influences future regulatory decisions,” Bolton said.

The association also plans to participate in an NPRM that commissioners approved in May on the future of the USF high-cost program (see 2605200028), Bolton added.